Bangladesh is the fifth most natural disaster prone country in the world (Martin, 2015) that is affected almost every year by some form of natural disaster such as floods, river erosion, landslides and cyclones etc. The historical trend of seismicity and some recent tremors occurred in Bangladesh and adjoining areas indicate that the country is also at high risk of earthquake. A powerful earthquake needs at least 100-150 years to be originated for a particular region (CDMP, 2010) and in that sense, it is overdue for Bangladesh as it experienced a large earthquake last in 1897.

The 1897 Great Indian Earthquake, which originated at an epicentral distance of only 230km from Dhaka caused extensive damage of brick masonry structures in Dhaka (Oldham, 1899).

Dhaka metropolis together with its surroundings is situated in the seismic zone 2, which is moderate risk prone area (BNBC, 1993). The metropolis Dhaka is an integral part in the southern tip of Madhupur tract encircled by some very active tectonic units viz. The Sylhet through on the north, the Jamalpur Graben on the west, the Dhaka Depression on the south and northeast-southwest trending Meghna Fault Zone in the east (Ansary et al, 2004).

The tectonic evaluation of Dhaka city can be explained as the north moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate. Dhaka is moving 30.6 mm/year in the direction northeast. Moreover, in and around Dhaka, the rate of strain accumulation is relatively high (Ali and Choudhury, 2001). Number of faults of variable dimensions characterises the shallow subsurface of Dhaka. Three major faults in Dhaka City as observed in satellite images and aerial photographs by the Geological Survey of Bangladesh and its field surveys are along Bagunbari Khal, trending east-west in the southern part of the city, along an abandoned channel, in the Uttara area, across Zia International Airport, trending north-south in the northern part of the city and along the Turag Rivar, in Mirpur near Dhaka Zoo, trending north-south in the western part of the city (Ali and Choudhury, 2001). The physical characteristic of the region made the community more vulnerable to earthquake. Most of the buildings in Old Dhaka is masonry structured and very old in age. Some buildings in older part of Dhaka city collapsed even without any earthquake, so it is beyond imagination what will happen during an earthquake (Jahan, 2011).

In June 2004, a five-storey building collapsed in Sakhari bazaar killed 19 people and injured several others among its 30 inhabitants. Due to poor construction quality of buildings, in April 2005, a nine-storied factory building collapsed in Saver that killed 70 people and injuring around 200 others among its 300 workers and in February 2006, a five-storey under construction building collapsed in Tejgoan that killed 18 and injured 40 workers. On 24 April 2013, a nine-storey building ‘Rana Plaza’ Collapsed in Savar is considered one of the worst man made hazards killing 1127 people and more than 100 are still missing (Ansary and Rahman, 2013).

The risk in urban centre is complex due to unplanned urbanisation and development in high-risk zones. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is the centre of economy, commerce, politics, etc. and accommodates vast population of 17,151,925 in the wider metropolitan area while the population of Dhaka City corporation was approximately 9,254,473 in 2011 (BBS, 2011).

Particularly, the older part of the city is relatively more vulnerable to earthquake due to high density of population. According to Bangladesh Population Census 2011, the population density of Chawkbazar Thana at Old Dhaka is 8,229 per square kilometre (BBS, 2011). Besides, the densely constructed old and unreinforced masonry building along with narrow local streets make the locality more earthquake disaster prone. According to a study conducted by Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) under Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, some 78,323 buildings will be destroyed with an economic loss of US $ 1075 million if a magnitude-6 earthquake shakes Dhaka. In case of a magnitude-7.5 earthquake originating from Madhupur Fault, some 72,316 buildings in the city will be damaged totally while 53,166 partially with an economic loss of about US $ 1112 million for only structural damage killing some 131,029 people instantly and injuring 32,948 others (CDMP, 2010).

Therefore, we need to determine the extent of vulnerability and risk that Bangladesh faces in case of a severe earthquake and what can be done about it. 

Within minutes of shaking, the earthquake reveals the vulnerabilities of buildings, households’ communities and of a country. The consequences expose flaws in governance, planning and setting of physical structure, design construction and use of the built environment in country with seismic hazard. There are different categorises of earthquake impact- physical impact, social impact, economic impact and cultural impact. The most significant physical impact of any earthquake is the tremendous loss of built environment, lots of deaths and injuries, loss of physical assets, failure to function of lifeline facilities of destroy or the part of infrastructure, etc. The most significant social impacts are likely to be the tremendous loss of human life and injuries. The survivors are likely to be displaced from their homes, hardships of finding shelter, securing food and water. The rise of epidemic diseases is most common. The economic cost of disasters can be classified into direct costs relate to the capital costs of assets destroyed or damaged by the disasters and indirect costs refer to the damage to the flow of goods and services. Lower outputs from damaged factories, loss of sales or rise in the prices of raw materials due to damaged infrastructure, loss of income, loss due to reduce tax collection, and expenses for relief, recovery, and rehabilitation are the indirect costs of disasters. The possible damage of destruction by earthquakes brings physical loss but more importantly a loss of cultural assets, which serve as a source of income through tourism. Loss of religious centres and schools inhabit psychological recovery following an earthquake and hence need to be rebuilt. Vulnerability Analysis of building stocks in a region is a very difficult and time-consuming process. Systematic identification of buildings at most seismic risk can make the whole procedure comparatively simpler. First step in this process can be quickly screening of buildings to determine if evaluation is required. Then detail analysis is performed in three levels including preliminary inspection, simplified vulnerability assessment and detail analysis. In preliminary inspection, the buildings are visually inspected to get a gross impression about the structure. Simplified vulnerability assessment procedure requiring limited engineering analysis based on information from visual observations and structural drawings or on site measurements. The method is widely known as Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) method. Earthquake vulnerability of building depends on some factors such as shape of buildings, redundancy, strength index, short column and pounding effect etc.

There are many wards and urban communities within the major cities, which all are vulnerable to earthquake hazard as per the seismic zonation of Bangladesh and likelihood of a serious earthquake is inevitable. It is already apprehended that there will be a large number of deaths as well as casualties, displaced persons, damages and destructions, economic impacts etc. in most of the highly urbanised areas within cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet. It is the responsibility of City Corporations to acquire all such information from relevant institutions for undertaking suitable measures to reduce the impacts.

Operating procedures for mobilising the support (Command, Control and Coordination structure before/during/post-earthquake event) for the City Corporations area need to be developed with the participation of relevant officials of respective First Responder institutions within the city. The City corporations are required to study their existing capacity against the required capacity for identified Earthquake emergency scenarios and adopt appropriate measures to ensure that all the institutions/relevant officials participate substantially in the Process of Contingency planning and Plan Implementation.

For effective earthquake preparedness, City Corporations must take the lead role in development, review periodic revision of City level Earthquake disaster Contingency Plan and defining the City level Earthquake disaster response procedures as roles and responsibilities of City officials as well as relevant city level First Responder Institutions covering bottom to top level in order to avoid confusion and improve efficiency in cost and time.   

Since early 1960s, lot of studies and research works have been carried out to understand the phenomenon but it has not been possible until to date to fully predict the occurrences of earthquakes. Geophysicists from China and some other countries are trying to correlate earthquake and behaviour of animals, birds and insects. Emission of random gas from fault lines is seen before an earthquake. Nevertheless, it needs to be studied further for confirmation and such observations are not in practice. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) inherited a seismic observatory that was established at Chittagong in 1952. At present, this observatory is partially operational and it can measure only the distance of earthquake epicentre. However, BMD cannot determine the magnitude and epicentre of earthquake.

Emergency relief in the face of natural calamities includes material aid to enable the affected people to meet their basic needs for shelter, water, food, medicine etc. The correct way of meeting these basic needs are in the form of medium and long-term action which will reduce the future vulnerabilities. Keeping these into consideration Ministry of Disaster Management and Rehabilitation (MDMR) has been made by the government of Bangladesh as the focal point in case of any disaster. Under the overall coordination of this ministry, all government bodies /agencies, international organisations, Armed Forces and NGOs are to function to mitigate sufferings of the people. The organogram of the different disaster management organisations at the national and local levels including the BMD, Armed Forces, Para Military Forces and NGOs are formed theoretically. The equipment, training and coordination require making it a full proof functional organization is not yet validated though Armed forces are in a leading role to prepare them. All over the world, the Armed Forces play significant role in rescue, evacuation, relief and rehabilitation operations. Because of their effective organisation structure, they can have significant contribution in managing the disaster in all its phases.

In Bangladesh Armed Forces, the Army contributes maximum due to its strength, role and capability. However, the key query remains unanswered- as to how Bangladesh Army should prepare herself for effective Disaster Management operations. Is Bangladesh Army prepared to shoulder the responsibilities? Does Bangladesh Army equipped with organised work forces and equipment to perform the envisaged Disaster Management especially to face devastating earthquakes? It is visualised that trained workforce, proper equipment, and a coordinated command and control Headquarters is a dire need to enhance the Disaster Management operations. Hence requirement of a specialised Disaster Management Force is felt. It is perceived that a dedicated and specialised Disaster Management Force will have positive outcome to deal with various disaster including future challenges over the existing Disaster Management system of Bangladesh Army. The organising and equipping a dedicated Disaster Management Force for Bangladesh Army are likely challenges to materialize such a force. A battalion size force might be organized in each division from the existing skilled and unskilled work force and that could be the one of the suitable option. The necessary budget for organisation, equipment, recruitment of required work force, availability of required equipment and standard of training might be a challenge. Now the time has come to address the challenges to be faced due to a catastrophic earthquake. It might seem to be a huge capital investment and might give an impression of ‘mission impossible’ but combined and coordinated effort — supported by the government can lead us to the right direction. A deliberate research needs to be carried out immediately to find out the details of recruitment process, budgetary aspects and procurement of equipment for the specialised Disaster Management Force who should be the first responder of any disaster.

After considering the resource, role and present state of preparedness of various organisations we can conclude that if any earthquake occurs after a certain return cycle period of 100 years with a magnitude of 7 and above, then the disaster will be severe. However, presently we are not prepared at all to face the catastrophe. For encountering the catastrophe we need to find out what are the challenges we have been facing and what are the ways forward? There are still much to be done in the field of earthquake. The pre-disaster preparedness, the post disaster operations, and its management plans are needed to come from theory to reality.

[Lieutenant Colonel Mirza Manwar Reza is the Chairman of department of disaster and human security management at Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP)]