When inflation goes down, the news sounds happy. They say prices are “easing.” But you go to the bazaar, or you see your electricity bill, and nothing feels cheaper. You are not wrong. Let me explain the part the headlines leave out.

“Inflation” is the speed at which prices rise. It is not the price itself. So when inflation falls, prices do not fall. They still go up, just a little more slowly than before. In May, prices were about 9 percent higher than a year earlier. If next year they rise 8 percent, something that cost 100 taka becomes 109, then 118. The rate looks better. Your bill keeps growing.

Think of a bus going uphill. Slowing the bus down does not bring it back to the bottom. It only climbs more gently. That is all “falling inflation” means. For prices to truly come down, the whole country would need to be in trouble, with closed factories and lost jobs. Nobody wants that. Even this year’s budget hopes for 7 to 8 percent inflation. In other words, this is really just our recent budget explained simply: the best case the government is planning for is that your cost of living still goes up, only by less.

This is why a pay rise can feel like a pay cut. Last month prices rose about 9 percent. Wages rose about 8 percent. So a worker in Narayanganj who got more pay still went home able to buy less. When prices rise faster than your salary, your money quietly buys less every month.

Some of this comes from outside. Bangladesh buys most of its fuel from abroad. When there is a war far away, or a shipping route is blocked, world fuel prices jump, and that reaches your home as a higher electricity bill and costlier bus fares.

So what actually helps? Other countries have shown the way. Turkey once had inflation near 70 percent. In about four years it came down to single digits. How? They kept money tight so prices could not run wild, they steadied their currency so imports stopped getting dearer, and they stopped spending money the country did not have. It worked. But notice this: prices never went back to where they started. People still paid much more than before. And when the discipline slipped, inflation came back fast.

That is the honest lesson. Bringing inflation down is slow, hard work, and it needs a steady hand kept on it for years. There is no quick trick. A stable currency, careful spending, and patience: that is the whole recipe, dull as it sounds. Countries that stay with it win. Countries that give up halfway pay twice.

So the next time you hear that inflation is “easing,” do not relax too soon. Ask two simple questions. Are prices still going up? And is my income going up faster? If the answer to the second is no, the good news on TV is not yet good news for you.

Author : Fahim Chowdhury is an investment banker who is currently Managing Director at RetailBook (UK) and previously was at Citi. He has advised on more than 500 capital markets transactions raising more than $200bn in capital across more than 30 countries.