Dhaka: Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a civil society think tank, has estimated that the government will experience a shortfall of Tk 40,000 crore in revenue collection in fiscal 2015-16.

The CPD came up with the estimate in its review report State of theBangladesh Economy in FY2016, released on Sunday.

Making a power-point presentation on the review report at BRAC Centre Inn in Dhaka, CPD research fellow Towfiqul Islam Khan said the revenue shortfall in the fiscal 2015-16 could be Tk 40,000 crore due to many reasons like overambitious targets, low international price of imported commodities, incentives in budget and lack of major improvement in administrative policy.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has got a target of Tk 176,370 crore of revenue collection in fiscal 2015-16 against Tk 135,028 last year.

This year, the target was set for collection at Tk 64,971 crore from income tax, while Tk 64,262 crore from VAT and Tk 18,752 from import duty. The target for export duty has been fixed at Tk 37 crore, excise duty at Tk 1,239 crore and supplementary duty at Tk 25,875.

About public finance, the CPD report said it scrutinised 26 projects taken under Annual Development Programme (ADP) in fiscal 2014-15 and found that 14 projects out of 26 were supposed to be completed in fiscal 20114-15. Apart from one project, the remaining 13 projects were carried forward to the ADP for fiscal 2015-16.

Towfiqul Islam said if the project is not completed within the timeframe, the expenditure of the projects will go up and people will not get benefit from it.

Speaking on the occasion, CPD fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya said if the allocation of project is spent, the project makes a success. But, they never evaluate where beneficiaries are getting benefits from it.

The allocation for social safety net has declined in the fiscal and its coverage is also minimised, the CPD report says. ‘Social sectors and social security programmes are not getting enough allocation in the budget -- even lower than NSSS targets. Allowance for Old Age Scheme was Tk 1,440 crore and will remain the same in the coming two fiscal years.’

About the 20 percent import duty imposed on rice market, the report says primary analysis reveals that local paddy price would increase by about 14 percent due to the introduction of the 20 percent duty on rice import. The quantity supplied by the private importers will decrease as import will relatively more expensive than before the intervention.

Towfiqul Islam said the paddy farmers will enjoy the highest surplus gain among the beneficiaries due to the introduction of rice import duty. ‘The estimated annual welfare gain for the paddy farmers in 2015 prices would be about Tk 411 crore,’ he added.

CPD stressed introducing Bangladesh Agriculture Costs and Prices Commission (BACPC) to provide strategic guidelines to the country’s food security, suggesting incentives or subsidy to producers and giving guidelines for price signals in the market.