Dushanbe, Tajikistan: Abdurahim Haitov, a Muslim from ex-Soviet Tajikistan, says Russia should have started bombing Islamic State jihadists in Syria a long time ago.

‘Islam was never a religion that spread hate,’ the pensioner said breathlessly as he hobbled to prayers at the sky blue-coloured central mosque in the capital Dushanbe.

‘The Islamic State group is a business. They sold out their faith for profit.’

But while Haitov may be opposed to the jihadists, thousands of others from impoverished ex-Soviet Central Asia are believed to have heeded the call to join IS — leaving governments facing a potential blowback at home.

That means leaders from the region — already dependent on Russia to help shore up their vulnerable southern frontier with conflict-wracked Afghanistan —  have had little choice but to largely back Moscow’s bombing campaign in Syria that the Kremlin says is aimed at IS.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin sits down with ex-Soviet leaders at a summit in Kazakhstan on Friday, the fight against terrorism and regional security are set to top the bill.

‘If these were stronger states without serious social fractures, maybe we would not be talking about a major threat from Syria or Afghanistan,’ said Vasily Kashin, an analyst at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

‘The fact is if any full-blown crisis were to engulf the region it would demand intervention from stronger neighbouring countries, foremostly Russia,’ Kashin told AFP.

According to the International Crisis Group, between 2,000 and 4,000 militants from Central Asia may be fighting under the banner of IS.

Regional militaries are mostly ill-equipped to handle any potential spillover from Afghanistan where IS militants are also seeking to firm up their foothold amid a new outburst of violence.

Russia, which has military bases in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is a regular source of military assistance for the region and has recently bulked up its presence.

‘The Syria conflict is perhaps something of an intangible for the Central Asian states, but what is happening in Afghanistan is a real concern for them,’ said Raffaello Pantucci of the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

‘This is where they would need Russia onside,’ he told AFP.

‘Syria threat to all of us’

Since the start of its bombing campaign in Syria on 30 September, Russia has sought to present itself as the solution to the IS threat.

The US and its allies have slammed Moscow’s intervention, saying it is targeting more moderate rebel groups battling the Syrian government and not IS.

By contrast, some Central Asian countries have backed the move, while other countries have not voiced any public criticism of Moscow’s campaign in Syria.

Volatile Kyrgyzstan’s pro-Kremlin leader Almazbek Atambayev unambiguously endorsed Moscow’s bombing campaign, while Kazakhstan called for the creation of a forum against terrorism spearheaded by countries with large Muslim populations including Russia.

But the majority-Sunni Central Asian states’ decision to side with ex-Soviet master Moscow has seemingly placed them on the wrong side of the sectarian split over Syria.

Russia is aligned with Shiite Iran and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who are accused of targeting Sunnis during the brutal four-year conflict.

The US, by contrast, is bombing the jihadists in coalition with Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states.

Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev during talks with Putin on Thursday appeared to dismiss criticism of Moscow’s bombing campaign.

‘There is a lot of speculation surrounding the topic of Sunnis and Shiites,’ the veteran leader said.

‘What is happening in Syria is a threat to all of us.’

While hundreds are thought to have already flocked to IS from the region, the IS group looks unlikely to be able to gain mass support among Muslims there despite sectarian ties. 

Central Asia is mostly Sunni but many believers in Central Asia identify themselves as ‘just a Muslim,’ according to the US-based Pew Research Centre.

‘Opposing Moscow is suicide’

At the meeting with Putin in Kazakhstan on Friday, ex-Soviet states including the Central Asian countries are expected to adopt a declaration on fighting terrorism, giving Moscow a much-needed boost in the face of international criticism.

Countries more wary of Russia’s new muscular foreign policy, such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, are unlikely to speak out publicly against an increasingly assertive Kremlin, analysts said.

‘After events in Ukraine they recognise Russia is now violent and spontaneous, violating international norms and so on,’ Kamoliddin Rabbimov, an independent Uzbek political analyst based in France, told AFP.

‘But it would be suicide to oppose Moscow directly. They are frightened of Putin’s anger,’ he said.